Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Predictors of Current and Longer-Term Patterns of Abundance of American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) across a Leading-Edge Protected Area.

American pikas (Ochotona princeps) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane 'mainlands'. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007-2009, we collectively hiked >16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars (in situ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AICc scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.

Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Education as a tool for addressing the extinction crisis: Moving students from understanding to action

Human activity is leading to mass species extinctions worldwide. Conservation biology (CB) courses, taught worldwide at universities, typically focus on the proximal causes of extinction without teaching students how to respond to this crisis. The Extinction of Species 360 course has been taught yearly each fall semester to several hundred students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison for over two decades. In 2007 the instructor and five teaching assistants combined principles driving extinctions, based on traditional lectures and discussion sections, with action-oriented education targeting individual consumer habits, to a group of 285 students. Students learn the science underpinning conservation efforts, as evidenced by highly significant learning (<.001) gains in a 22 question survey in every measured category, and also make direct and immediate changes in their lifestyle and consumption habits. This course succeeded in each of its three primary goals: a) informed students about the value of and threats to biodiversity, similar to traditional CB courses, b) emphasized our personal role (as consumers) in perpetuating the extinction crisis and c) facilitated activities to reduce our impact and help alleviate the crisis. The results suggested students learned CB concepts and understood biodiversity’s value, increased their awareness of the connection between personal consumption and extinction, and reduced their collective ecological footprints. Furthermore, students complemented their learning and multiplied the potential for consumption reduction, by participating in action-based activities. Such academic courses can provide a rigorous treatment of the direct and indirect causes of extinction while developing a student’s sense of personal empowerment to help slow the extinction crisis. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (4): 1115-1126. Epub 2010 December 01.

La actividad humana está produciendo grandes extinciones de especies en todo el mundo. Los cursos de biología de la conservación (BC), impartidos en universidades de todo el mundo, por lo general se enfocan en las causas de la extinción, sin enseñar a los estudiantes cómo responder a esta crisis. Durante más de dos décadas, la Universidad de Wisconsin-Madison ha ofrecido el curso Extinción de las Especies (#360), que se ha dado cada año, durante otoño a varios cientos de estudiantes cada vez. En 2007 el instructor y cinco asistentes de enseñanza combinaron los principios de manejo de la extinción, con base en presentaciones tradicionales y una sección de discusión, con educación con acción-orientada a los hábitos individuales de consumo, a un grupo de 285 estudiantes. Ellos aprendieron que la ciencia sustenta los esfuerzos de conservación, como lo demuestra el aprendizaje altamente significativo (P<.001) en una encuesta de 22 preguntas en todas las categorías medidas, y en cambios directos e inmediatos en su estilo de vida y hábitos de consumo. Este curso tuvo éxito en cada uno de sus tres objetivos principales: a) los estudiantes fueron informados sobre el valor y las amenazas a la biodiversidad, similar a los tradicionales cursos de BC, b) hizo hincapié en nuestro papel personal (como consumidores) en perpetuar la crisis de la extinción y c) facilito actividades para reducir nuestro impacto y ayudar a disminuir la crisis. Los resultados sugieren que los estudiantes aprendieron conceptos de CB y comprendieron el valor de la biodiversidad, aumentaron su preocupación por la conexión entre el consumo personal y la extinción, y redujeron la huella ecológica colectiva. Además, los estudiantes complementaron su aprendizaje y se multiplicó el potencial de reducción del consumo, mediante la participación en actividades basado en acciones concretos. Estos cursos académicos pueden proporcionar un tratamiento riguroso de las causas directas e indirectas de la extinción, al mismo tiempo que desarrollar en el estudiante el sentido de poder personal para ayudar a disminuir la crisis de la extinción.

Education as a tool for addressing the extinction crisis: moving students from understanding to action.

Human activity is leading to mass species extinctions worldwide. Conservation biology (CB) courses, taught worldwide at universities, typically focus on the proximal causes of extinction without teaching students how to respond to this crisis. The Extinction of Species 360 course has been taught yearly each fall semester to several hundred students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison for over two decades. In 2007 the instructor and five teaching assistants combined principles driving extinctions, based on traditional lectures and discussion sections, with action-oriented education targeting individual consumer habits, to a group of 285 students. Students learn the science underpinning conservation efforts, as evidenced by highly significant learning (< .001) gains in a 22 question survey in every measured category, and also make direct and immediate changes in their lifestyle and consumption habits. This course succeeded in each of its three primary goals: a) informed students about the value of and threats to biodiversity, similar to traditional CB courses, b) emphasized our personal role (as consumers) in perpetuating the extinction crisis and c) facilitated activities to reduce our impact and help alleviate the crisis. The results suggested students learned CB concepts and understood biodiversity's value, increased their awareness of the connection between personal consumption and extinction, and reduced their collective ecological footprints. Furthermore, students complemented their learning and multiplied the potential for consumption reduction, by participating in action-based activities. Such academic courses can provide a rigorous treatment of the direct and indirect causes of extinction while developing a student's sense of personal empowerment to help slow the extinction crisis.